29 Nov 2017

Active ETF's - just a type of Closed-end fund?

ETF's have not been really tested in a major market downturn or panic. 2008-09 does not count as amounts involved were still quite small, and focused on simple structures linked to major indices. The next 'Big One' will be different. As I see it, active ETF's are pretty similar to Investment Trusts (UK) or Closed-end Funds (USA). They are just trying to keep NAV and Market Prices as close as possible. But will they succeed? Only time will tell. I for my part will be happy to capitalize on any price distortions - and distortions there will be (or the 'Authorities' will shut the market).

11 Nov 2017

Super High Margins required on Bitcoin Futures

In my opinion the collateral required to back up futures trading - but also all over-the-counter derivatives trading - is way too low and not sufficient to withstand a market crash like the one in October 1987 or during the GFC (Great Financial Crisis).
2%, even 8% margin as suggested in this article are never going to be sufficient when markets move 10, 20 per cent of more within days.
The outcome can only be described as truly catastrophic, not only for market participants, but for society and the economy as a whole. It would drive a stake right through the heart of Capitalism.
Why Interactive Broker's Founder fears Bitcoin Futures (Barron's, Pay Wall)