Credit Suisse troubles due to wrong Leadership Development

Media Pundits and Deal Makers are keen to give free advice to Credit Suisse - sell this, spin off that - especially with reference to its Asset Management unit. But one thing should not be forgotten: there is no clear rationale against combining Retail, Investment and Private Banking and Asset Management as JP Morgan demonstrates. What is required, however, is superior management, and that means having the right people in charge. This means not only hiring potential saviours or mercenaries from outside but creating a HumanResource strategy that develops and fosters talent from the bottom up as demonstrated by GoldmanSachs. Neither the Chairman nor the previous CEO had any proper training as a banker. Head of Risk Management had no previous trading experience or appropriate qualification for the role.

Limits of Homeworking

All very well, we all will sit on our sofas and - between walking the dog and helping with the housework - do our work on the pc and telephone. But all this new thinking falls down in one important aspect - how to bring new people, experienced and - more importantly - those starting their career - into the business. You cannot just have a fresh graduate sit at home and being taught all the ins and outs of the job. Sooner or later any organisation will be short of talent and will have to face the fact that office life will have to be resumed. Organisation like large retail banks are more and more similar to a utility and basically just have to make sure that a lot of routine transactions get handled smoothly - but this indicates that they are also very easy to be replaced by upstarts that can perform these functions cheaper and more efficiently.

Wuhan Virus turns City into a Ghost Town

One piece of consolation, the cities that want to steal London's crown will not be in a much different position, what price an office tower in Frankfurt or Paris? Always thought the vast expanses of entrance lobbies in the towers were an absurd waste of money, one or two receptionists and a lonely plant, in addition to the inevitable 'security' personnel....and is there really enough business for the cast of thousands employed by the major banks, brokers, lawyers and accountants?
Virus turns City into a Ghost Town

30% of Bank Jobs May Disappear in Next Five Years - Former Citi CEO

Vikram Pandit, who ran Citigroup Inc. during the financial crisis, said developments in technology could see some 30 percent of banking jobs disappearing in the next five years.

(Bloomberg)

BOE's Carney urges banks to prepare for all potential outcomes

OK, so what about WW3, Meteor impact? All these events COULD happen, more work for the jobsworths in the ever-expanding  regulatory realm.
Brexit: Mark Carney urges banks to prepare for all potential outcomes

Loan Losses incurred by Banks

One has to wonder how banks manage to incur horrendous loan losses in the first place. While it is sometimes said that the only safe loans are extended to borrowers who do not need them it should be foremost on any banker's minds to make sure that loans can be repaid.
Apart for cases of fraudulent collusion between lender and borrower (unfortunately not as rare as naive observers assume) the source of loan losses is larger than can be explained with excuses such as 'unfortunate business conditions'.
A good example is the case of the staid Banque Cantonale de Geneve which in my opinion is straying too far from its area of competence. Financing a commodity trade involving Nigerian transactions is not something you expect a Swiss Cantonal Bank to get involved in. Forensic investigation into cases of loan write-offs would in most cases demonstrate that simple rules of common sense were absent in the decision making, - not only by the bank officers directly involved but all the way up the hierarchy of the institution.

European Bank Troubles

Don't blame Politicians or Central Banks. Of course they must share the blame, but what about Top Management taking their eye off the ball, antiquated and hierarchical business structures, poor control over lending decisions, poor acquisition strategy and execution? Low or negative interest rates are a burden, but no one stops banks from charging interest rates that give them a positive margin - credit cards and small business loans are anything but cheap! And if you cannot use deposits then just charge customers penal interest rates, you owe them nothing, put the blame on thieving Central Banks and their paymasters in Politics!

Credit Suisse CEO without Banking Experience

Can it make any sense to appoint someone to lead a bank when the person has no specific experience in the industry? Recent moves by regulators tended to make it mandatory that senior staff has relevant qualification and experience, so what banking experience does Credit Suisse CEO Thiam have? Sad to see a once-stellar franchise being managed so abysmally! Being well-connected in the higher echelons of politics in Senegal or Ivory Coast should not be a free pass to top management.

Europe is over-banked says UBS Chairman Weber

I could not agree more. With the arrival of Peer-to-Peer Lending, Robo-Advisers, Internet Banking and more stringent (suffocating?) Regulation the writing is on the wall. Could one suspect that the time of excessively generous compensation will also soon come to an end? And maybe the first to feel the impact of a new and more sober climate in banking could be Axel Weber, the UBS chairman, himself. It is difficult to see why the new banking model can support a salary of Sfr 6,000,000 for what is in essence a supervisory role. Banks in the USA get by without a separate Chairman in most cases and the role is much more modestly remunerated in the UK.

Why Europe's Banks don't have enough Capital

Interesting contribution from the Head of Research at BIS. But when the incompetents in Politics and Regulation have the UK banks pay £45 Bio in penalties for (mostly ficticious) 'mis-selling' one can only say it is a miracle that the banks are left standing and the sleepy shareholders (basically the fiduciaries managing the investment management industry) are not up in arms. 

If you want to bleed your banking system dry there is no better way, similar to Fx and Libor Fixing. 

The principles of forensic and detailed proof are brushed aside in order to score political points.

Future of 'Universal' Banking Model in doubt

The sudden exit of another Bank CEO - now at Barclays Bank - is a stark reminder that managing a 'Universal' Bank requires near-superhuman skills, and a good portion of luck (or friends in high places as JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs would probably confirm).The business model did work quite well in a period of slow technological change, markets that were quite insulated and regulation that kept unwanted competition out.But a universal bank is basically nothing but a financial conglomerate and the conglomerate model - while offering certain advantages - is not one that has demonstrated that it is likely to be successful in the long run. Who still remembers names such as LTV or Gulf+Western? Both were high-fliers on the stock market until they hit the buffers as they become unmanageable, their mastermind retired or they hit unfavourable economic headwinds.

Jamie Dimon clings to outdated business model

No surprise that Dimon defends the status quo, bigger is better and the banking department store model is best (Reuters). But I wonder if he reads the trends in financial services the right way. Specialist providers may well be the way of the future, especially if they make good use of technology. Payments, Fund Management, Investment Banking Advice, Securities Trading all can easily - and cheaply - provided by standalone providers. One only has to wonder why there are still so many bank branches on the High Streets. The only - and probably the real - reason that gives JP Morgan and other super large banks an edge is the (sad) fact that customers - and unfortunately politicians and the regulatory minions - consider them too-big-too-fail. That still pushes clients their way that would otherwise consider cheaper and more nimble competitors. The growth of new product providers is therefore stunted which gives the large banks the opportunity to cling to their outdated business model.

Being a 'Global' Bank brings extra Risks

One has to wonder if being a 'Global' Bank is really an intelligent business proposition. It requires Superman/woman to manage far-flung empires and activities that can span more disciplines than any normal human can realistically be expected to fully understand. And a particular risk factor are differences in business culture that senior management - be it located in New York, London, Frankfurt, Zurich or Tokyo - can hardly be expected to appreciate to the extent that would be required. Deutsche Bank lending money to build another hotel/casino in Las Vegas? Citigroup lending money secured by warehouse receipts in Chinese Ports? An Austrian Bank lending money to a steel business in Russia? Do these activities make sense or would concentration on a geographical area one understands and is familiar with be more profitable in the long run?

7-Yr Bonus Clawback? You must be joking!

That is what a former Wimbledon Champion would probably say to the psychopathic politicians and regulators (including reckless Bank of England officials busy stealing from Savers). How anyone can be expected to work for seven long years and not be sure that the hard-earned money will be his for good is beyond me. Anyone contemplating a career in banking in the UK should have his head examined. Meanwhile our politicians are busy cleaning up the problems they or their predecessors created, safe in the knowledge that however big the waste of money they will NEVER be asked to compensate the taxpayer.

Why UK's new bonus regime could be the world's toughest (CNBC)

Regulatory Nightmare is here and now!

I quite often said that the control freaks in charge of our lives - i.e. psychopathic politicians - will not be satisfied with extending ever-more intrusive regulation into all aspects of society. In the realm of banking and finance that would mean that - in addition of the armies of 'compliance' staff that is an expensive millstone around the necks of savers and investors - there would ultimately have to be one 'Kommissar' next to each productive employee. Ultimately the whole economic system would atrophy under this burden - the direction is clear for anyone who has seen the 'success' of the Cuban economic model.
U.S. Seeks Eyes Inside Banks' Offices (Wall Street Journal)

TLTRO - a can of worms

Last week's announcement by the head of the ECB, Don Draghi, that the Eurocrats will pump up to € 400 billion into a 'targetted' long-term refinancing operation immediately makes me curious about how exactly this new bureaucratic monster is supposed to operate.
Leaving aside the question whether or not this new confetti money will do much good to the real economy in the Eurozone area there is a number of problems even a cursory look at the scheme brings to mind. So when one member of the Commentariat calls the TLTRO the "Star of the Show" (Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank) we would warn him to be less star-struck and more dispassionate. But maybe his employer really does need this shot in the arm (or gift from heaven, maybe that is the star Moec refers to)?
So I cannot wait for the full details to be published. A few critical points that need answers: Who shall be the beneficiaries of the additional lending? Giant Buy-out funds speculating on ever-rising share prices certainly will not be among them though there is a displacement effect as banks may well use the TLTRO money to fund one group of clients and therefore have more money available to property, buy-out groups and companies seeking to finance M+A deals.
And what exactly counts as a small (and possibly mid-sized) borrower? And who is going to monitor that the TLTRO money really goes into ADDITIONAL lending to this privileged group of clients. And what if most or all of the lending is done in 'stable' economies such as Germany or Austria?
One thing is certain - programs such as these will inevitably lead to additional jobs for the boys and increase the ever-expanding number of bureaucrats working for the ECB, the local Central Banks and favored 'Consultants' charging exorbitant fees that are ultimately paid by savers and taxpayers who as usual have no say in these dirigist extravaganzas.

US blackmails banks - EU useless

The US 'authorities' (if you can name them as such as the country becomes more and more ruled by out-of-control lobbies and zealots) prepare another drive-by shooting aimed at a foreign bank. This time it is the turn of French BNP-Paribas. The 'crime' was that the bank supposedly conducted business with a peaceful country as that is the only way one can describe Iran. Or can anyone point to an occasion where the country has been the aggressor and not the victim (do I need to mention BP, or Mossadegh?). So it is with growing anger that one watches the spectacle of a useless Eurocracy that drowns Europe in more and more intrusive and expensive regulation but is afraid (incapable? lazy?) to put a serious warning shot in the direction of the United States demanding that the extra-territorial reach of its 'laws' be stopped immediately. Europe - or at least its citizens - have no quarrel with Iran and do no longer want to support unaccountable lobbies and the policies they have imposed on the US government.
PS: Cleptocrats in the US have just upped the ante - $10 billion, and rising? Basically it is the behavior of the typical criminal, grab what you can get away with, only this time it is the government (or the shady lobbies that push idiotic and counterproductive foreign policies on a hapless majority).

Barclays: how not to manage a business

Announcing that the number of jobs in the investment banking unit will be cut by 25 per cent over the next three years is as bad a decision as can be. Firstly it sends a clear signal to anyone who can get a job elsewhere to do so as soon as feasible. The remaining staff will be spending most of their time second-guessing where and when the next cuts will be made. Even worse, the instinct for survival will make it essential that each and every one tries to protect his employment by trying to put the knife into his or her colleagues' back. Above all it is not even clear why a down-sized and provincial version of Barclays - not dissimilar to a building society or - shock horror! - the Co-op bank, will be more successful in the long run. Is there something JP Morgan or Bankamerica know that Jenkins and the regulatory/political cabal here in the UK don't know? But never mind, Shipping, Car Manufacturing, Textiles, Steel Making etc were successfully destroyed by the Powers-that-be, so it matters little if British Banking is blow-torched as well. Makes it so much easier for other financial centres - in the EU and further away - to eat the City's lunch.

Absurd Asset Quality Review

Every bank is bust if all depositors want their money back at the same time - unless a thorough reform (which we support) has mandated a strict maturity match (Disregarded by the Solons in Brussels, Frankfurt etc). It is also always possible to find a scenario that results in a bank failing a stress test - how about a Mega Earthquake in Yellowstone? an escalation of the Ukraine conflict or a nuclear exchange somewhere else? So to employ 25 Deloitte staffers to check more than half (which half?) of all loans at Austria's Raiffeisen Landesbank Oberoesterreich (12/13 Balance Sheet € 40 Bio) seems to be an expensive waste of money. The depositors/borrowers/equity owners have to pay the hefty fee of € 4.5 Mio for this extravaganza. It remains to be seen how 'expert' the Deloitte people are. Can we assume that they are banking experts? or just box tickers? Will these commissars really be able to properly assess each and every borrower? Are they just recent school leavers and Deloitte charges full whack for their (questionable) services? Was there a proper tender process when the contract was given to Deloitte? As the team will stay at RLB for a full five (!) months each of the 25 will be charged to the bank at a fee of approx. € 40,000 per month (!!). Talking of overpaid bankers! Now multiply all these shenanigans by a massive number - the same game is being played all over Europe, without a single citizen having had a chance to have a say - and you can see what massive amount of wealth destruction is being conducted at the behest of unelected politicians and their minions in the regulatory and central banking institutions. And the taxpayer is still not off the hook when the next disaster hits the financial industry!

Banking Stress Tests of limited value

Every bank can be shown to fail under certain assumptions. For example a 50 percent drop in property and/or share prices, a steep increase in interest rates etc. So you can always design stress tests that result in a positive or negative result, depending on the scenario you choose.