Archegos just a warning of things to come

Archegos just a warning of things to come, and it will be ignored! But how many Risk managers are preparing their business for a 1987-style market 'surprise', i.e. a near-instant 25%+ move in prices? Are the clearing houses, prime brokers, margin clerks really set up for this type of 'black swan' event? Markets are much bigger then in 1987 when bond issues of 1 billion were the rare exception and the derivatives market was in its infancy. And we don't even want to think of the break-up of the Euro (my suggestion - if you hold any Euros make sure you are not left 'naked' when it happens).

Credit Suisse troubles due to wrong Leadership Development

Media Pundits and Deal Makers are keen to give free advice to Credit Suisse - sell this, spin off that - especially with reference to its Asset Management unit. But one thing should not be forgotten: there is no clear rationale against combining Retail, Investment and Private Banking and Asset Management as JP Morgan demonstrates. What is required, however, is superior management, and that means having the right people in charge. This means not only hiring potential saviours or mercenaries from outside but creating a HumanResource strategy that develops and fosters talent from the bottom up as demonstrated by GoldmanSachs. Neither the Chairman nor the previous CEO had any proper training as a banker. Head of Risk Management had no previous trading experience or appropriate qualification for the role.

Are CVA's undermining Real Estate Investment?

The widespread practice of reducing rent obligations is leading to problematic outcomes. The UK restaurant chain Leon just last December completed a CVA and today's media report that the operation is sold for an eye-watering amount, giving the founders a substantial multi-million pound pay-off. One has to assume that the sale was made much easier now that the rent bill was reduced - at the expense of the landlords one has to assume (happy to hear about details of the CVA in case you are privy to the information).

Outsourced CIO (OCIO) - solution of fad?

Basically the OCIO (or 'fiduciary') approach to manage institutional portfolios is a move back to what once was popular as the 'balanced' approach to portfolio management. The provider is given more or less discretionary authority though tailored constraints transfer more or less responsibility back to the client. The more constraints are included in the mandate the less responsibility for the ultimate performance can be pinned on the OCIO and in the end the whole thing ends up in a messy outcome where each side blames the other when results are sub-par.
Reading this statement from the quoted report one has to wonder whether or not those responsible for the management of the portfolios are really qualified for their tasks.

The Pandemic Is Spurring OCIO Growth. Transparency Will Follow 

"Crises cause many institutional investors to realize that they are not comfortable or properly structured to effectively navigate a volatile, complex, fast-moving capital markets environment under the traditional consulting relationship, much less fully independently."

            

Limits of Homeworking

All very well, we all will sit on our sofas and - between walking the dog and helping with the housework - do our work on the pc and telephone. But all this new thinking falls down in one important aspect - how to bring new people, experienced and - more importantly - those starting their career - into the business. You cannot just have a fresh graduate sit at home and being taught all the ins and outs of the job. Sooner or later any organisation will be short of talent and will have to face the fact that office life will have to be resumed. Organisation like large retail banks are more and more similar to a utility and basically just have to make sure that a lot of routine transactions get handled smoothly - but this indicates that they are also very easy to be replaced by upstarts that can perform these functions cheaper and more efficiently.

Wuhan Virus turns City into a Ghost Town

One piece of consolation, the cities that want to steal London's crown will not be in a much different position, what price an office tower in Frankfurt or Paris? Always thought the vast expanses of entrance lobbies in the towers were an absurd waste of money, one or two receptionists and a lonely plant, in addition to the inevitable 'security' personnel....and is there really enough business for the cast of thousands employed by the major banks, brokers, lawyers and accountants?
Virus turns City into a Ghost Town

ESG creates quagmire for Fund Managers

And business in general. The demands from lobbies and interest groups will expand and no action by managers and businesses will be enough to satisfy them. Once pandora's box is opened issues that really should be settled in the realm of politics will lead to never-ending complications for what should really be the priority for business and investment - obtaining profits or a satisfactory performance for savers.
(27-July-2020)
Boohoo supply chain allegations reveal challenges facing ESG investors

London is Top City Brand

London is the world’s top “City Brand”, with Sydney, Paris, New York, and Rome rounding out the top five, according to the people in ten countries surveyed for the Anholt-Ipsos City Brands Index.

www.ipsos.com

Let Politicians sort out Climate Change

And Fund Managers should get on with doing their job, which is find good investments for their clients. Has ANYONE ever heard of this 'ThinkTank'? (and should many of them not just simply be called non-representative/unelected lobbies?). So who should care about the latests moan (sorry, 'Report') by 'InfluenceMap'? Why should companies and shareholders, and the investment managers accept lock, stock and barrel what is bandied about regarding 'Climate Change'. Let politics set rules in a democratic fashion, that is its role and business and investors can work in the framwork that is given. Everything else is just Virtue-signalling - esp as long as the 100 pound gorilla in the Climate 'Emergency' discussion, rampant growth in world's  Population, is swept under the carpet.
Biggest Asset Managers not holding Companies to account on Climate Change 

Fund Management Consolidation - a caveat

Anath Capital acquires Stratton Street  and will integrate the credit fund manager's $500 Mio AuM with its Garraway Capital subsidiary to bring combined AuM to $ 1 Bio.
While consolidation in the Asset Management space continues it will not end in a completely oligopolistic landscape. The bigger the dominant firms become the less able they will be to differentiate their products or achieve outperformance. This will always leave room for up-and-coming managers - apart from the human desire to run their own business rather than being stuck in huge bureaucracies.

Asset Managers strive to cut Banks out of Forex Dealing

Not sure that FX trading is such a significant drag on performance. Maybe fund managers should just do less frantic in- and out trading. And trying to find counter parties directly at the right time and right size is not going to offer significant rewards. Who wants to take the other side of a 1 billion trade when one knows that the other side HAS to trade?
Asset managers strive to cut out banks from forex dealing

Hedge Fund blows up - where was Citi's risk management?

If the lenders - in this case Citigroup is quoted - of liquidity don't manage their risk and losses result it is easy to blame the hedge fund. Careful monitoring of exposure should have prevented this loss quite easily.
(27-Mar-2019)
Hedge fund blow-up costs investors and Citigroup

Pay Gap reporting - nothing but an Employment Scheme?

Ever since Pay Reporting for senior Executives became standard practice (and started an upward spiral of executive compensation) virtue signalling via pay gap reporting became more and more pervasive. But does it really help anyone if pay differentials by gender, race, age are scrupulously registered and reported? The inevitable pay gaps will only breed resentment and be endless fodder for self-appointed campaigners and lobbies. After all, there will never be perfect equality and there will always be one group that is paid less than the other side. And why not report by religious affiliation? there might be interesting aspects to discover as well - did not some scholar relate economic success to Protestantism?
That some businesses find it worth their time to call for MORE (!) mandatory regulation (bureaucracy) reminds one of Lenin's bonmot: "The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them" (6-March-2019)
Companies call for mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting

Yellow Vest Protests - France

Violence certainly is not a pleasant experience but neither is life under a semi-democratic state that gives citizens no say except in a box-ticking exercise every few years. And even that is not addressing specific problems but is mostly based on personalities and vague statements that are never properly followed when a politician is elected.
France plots tougher response to 'undeclared' protests

Balyasny said to cut 125 People

It is quite amazing that a Hedge Fund - or any Investment Manager - with an AuM just under $12 billion can have a cast of hundreds, more than six hundred staff in Balyasny's case. So it is no wonder that such a large cut in staffing numbers became inevitable.
Hopefully most Firms have a tighter control over their headcount - a strategy of hire and fire is not conducive to a good working environment and investment clients are less than happy if they see frequent staff changes.
Balyasny Cuts 125 People as Hedge Fund Bleeds Assets

RBS/Natwest worried about Irish Border question

One should think that RBS/Natwest has more problems than this one. Not sure why there is such a fuss about the Northern Ireland border. Simple Solution: UK keeps it open, should go for unilateral free trade anyway. Then it is up to Ireland/EU to make their move. If there is hard border it is clear who is to blame
RBS on Irish border questions

Beware of Age Discrimination with targeted Ads

Facebook job ads allow age discrimination lawsuit claims (Marketwatch)

Bitcoin: Regulators wash their hands - too long for some?

While some are supposed to have become rich due to the wonders of the digital "currency" hype one should remember that this is a giant ponzi scheme where the lucky few owe their winnings to the late-comers who splash out serious money in order to get hold of one ephemeral electronic bit - wherever that is. A chain letter at least gives you a piece of paper to put on your wall. Where are the regulators, why are they busy concocting ever more intrusive regulations that hardly serve any purpose except increasing costs for ordinary savers? Should they not at least apply the rules for the digital space?
CNBC

Bitcoin: Regulators wash their hands - too long for some?

While some are supposed to have become rich due to the wonders of the digital "currency" hype one should remember that this is a giant ponzi scheme where the lucky few owe their winnings to the late-comers who splash out serious money in order to get hold of one ephemeral electronic bit - wherever that is. A chain letter at least gives you a piece of paper to put on your wall. Where are the regulators, why are they busy concocting ever more intrusive regulations that hardly serve any purpose except increasing costs for ordinary savers? Should they not at least apply the rules for the digital space?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/05/winklevoss-twins-head-the-list-of-people-getting-very-rich-from-bitcoin.html

Bitcoins: The drumbeat goes on

The drumbeat goes on, any number of self-appointed 'experts'  push bitcoin etal, still not clear what 'value' it has or provides, just question of time that regulators impose restrictions, to market, buy/sell it through traditional banking channels unless full 'know your customer' disclosure is made. and who REALLY needs bitcoins, internet banking is so efficient already! Price easily manipulated due to complete lack of transparency, and who are the idiots that pay $10,000 for a bit with REAL money?
Here's why not to put your money into bitcoin (Evening Standard)

Active ETF's - just a type of Closed-end fund?

ETF's have not been really tested in a major market downturn or panic. 2008-09 does not count as amounts involved were still quite small, and focused on simple structures linked to major indices. The next 'Big One' will be different. As I see it, active ETF's are pretty similar to Investment Trusts (UK) or Closed-end Funds (USA). They are just trying to keep NAV and Market Prices as close as possible. But will they succeed? Only time will tell. I for my part will be happy to capitalize on any price distortions - and distortions there will be (or the 'Authorities' will shut the market).

Vanguard to launch active ETF's

Super High Margins required on Bitcoin Futures

In my opinion the collateral required to back up futures trading - but also all over-the-counter derivatives trading - is way too low and not sufficient to withstand a market crash like the one in October 1987 or during the GFC (Great Financial Crisis).
2%, even 8% margin as suggested in this article are never going to be sufficient when markets move 10, 20 per cent of more within days.
The outcome can only be described as truly catastrophic, not only for market participants, but for society and the economy as a whole. It would drive a stake right through the heart of Capitalism.
Why Interactive Broker's Founder fears Bitcoin Futures (Barron's, Pay Wall)